Kin
If you haven’t heard of it already, Kin is/was Microsoft’s attempt to make a phone for the young, connected crowd. The ones who use facebook and twitter but doesn’t need a smartphone. A few days ago rumors said that the phone sold only 10.000 units and had been canceled. The truth was even worse.
People inside Microsoft have reported that they’ve sold only 503 Kin phones since release. That is 0,01% of iPhone 4′s first weekend sales. It is a disaster. Microsoft purportedly spent over $1 billion on the project. Most other companies would be bankrupt by such a failiure. How could this happen? Most of the tech pundits I listen to said this when Microsoft first showed of the phone. I too didn’t think it would sell great, but not this bad.
But in hindsight I can see where it all went wrong:
- The Kin wasn’t done. Many features were missing or buggy
- It wasn’t a smartphone, but it had smartphone plans, costing as much a month as an iPhone or an Android phone
- The marketing was bad
- The target market is small or non-existant. I can’t imagine who would choose a Kin before an iPhone
- Microsoft doesn’t understand it’s customers
When you look at it this way, it may even be surprising they sold any. Of course, some of them was sold to people who try new stuff, blogs and others who doesn’t get review units.
What does all this lead up to?
I will go on record saying that Windows Phone 7 will also be a flop. Not as bad as the Kin, but still a flop. It will sell a few units in the first days, until people understand the weaknesses of the system and the reviews comes out. Word of mouth will also slow down adoption. Some businesses will pick it up, if they are 100% Microsoft shops already. Then they too will see where it comes short, and go back to Blackberry or whatever they were using before.
Microsoft simply can’t produce a product that is good enough to compete with iPhone and Android in such a short time. Just read interviews with the Windows Phone 7 team leader. They know the product won’t be done. It won’t have all the necessary features. They will be playing catch-up for years to come. Maybe they can get back in the game, but not this year. Not yet.
